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Jay Cronley
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Tuesday, October 23
A losing proposition




My Breeders Cup team is place and poised to perform down to expectations on racing's most exciting day later in the month at Belmont Park.

Last time in this space I announced that since I couldn't pick winners on Breeders Cup day, I would focus on what I had done best down through the years, which is pinpoint horses that run fourth, seventh and ninth.

I have in the meanwhile received a number of emails at the newspaper where I work in Tulsa, with horse players wondering the following: Isn't it as difficult to pick losers as it is to pick winners?

That's a pretty good question.

In picking winners, you eliminate losers.

Basic handicapping philosophy would remain the same no matter what you were looking for, a bargain or a sucker bet.

So here's what you do. You do the same as you've always done on Breeders Cup day, which from my team's perspective is you try to pick winners and come up with losers.

Since I was audited by the IRS in a review that also took into consideration certain gambling winnings and losses, I keep pretty good records. And in the last five Breeders Cup days, the best I did was the year before last when I broke even. According to my notes, it was an emotional roller coaster. I was down two hundred, up fifty, down three, down two, down four.

To get back to that glorious place called square, I had to hit an Exacta based on a horse's name that was almost the same as an ex-wife's.

One member of my Breeders' Cup team is experiencing relationship trouble.

Legal threats are being exchanged.

But he assures me that he will be there when the bell goes off.

The one with whom he is experiencing difficulty doesn't like for him to be at the horse races; so he can probably be counted on to bet more than he has, which always seems to increase his percentage of losing selections.

Here is what the team looks like now (several invitations remain outstanding).

One squad member owns horses, a few claimers. He must have inherited some money, who knows. He thinks that because he owns claiming horses, he's a better handicapper than used to be the case. He loves to give a lot of advice about whom to bet and does it so much, he has to listen to himself and back up what he says.

Another team player never has any money and plays scared and makes the most conservative wagers imaginable.

He worries about a $2 place wager on the third choice as being too over-the-top.

A Breeders Cup team co-captain is a Hollywood producer who bets them up big.

It is possible that in some rather short fields, he has bet them all in one combination or another.

Numerous times I have seen him angry to collect $700.

He thinks it's bad luck not to bet every race at every track.

Another partner is a woman who asks opinions of everybody. There could be a drunk passed out in a corner and she would shake him awake and say, "Who do you like?" I don't know exactly what she's looking for, perhaps uncommon confidence, but it's funny to watch.

Another handicapper I hope to have nearby on Breeders Cup day is a man who sells a tip sheet and bases his selection on back class.




 




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